How probable is a Russian invasion of Ukraine?

[Defaulter]

There have been some very interesting developments recently, namely the build up of Russian forces on the eastern border, and the commencement of an anti-terrorist operation by Kiev.

- http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27035196

Putting aside who is responsible and who is in the right/wrong, how likely do you think a Russian invasion is? the size of Russian forces arrayed on the eastern border comprises of an estimated 30-40,000+ with APC's/Tanks and air support. A force quite capable of securing eastern locations such as Donetsk and pave the way for a larger invasion force.

Russia has stated several times that they will protect the interests of Russian speaking civilians, and that was their reasoning for the occupation of Crimea. They have also warned Kiev not to take military action against the 'protesters' in eastern regions like Donetsk, a warning which has apparently been ignored.

Either way, things are most definitely getting interesting.

[Vezok]

I wouldn't say "invasion" so much as "annexation."
But there's like a 50% chance.

[[RUS] Vlad01]

occupation of Crimea

Taking rightful Russian territory =/= occupation

[Zekamalikyd]

"let's discuss about the land you mistakenly believe is yours"

[[RUS] Vlad01]

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/c ... D0%B2..jpg
It is Russian territory since the last century

[Zekamalikyd]

now in english

[[RUS] Vlad01]

are you too stupid?

[Zekamalikyd]

no i just don't understand russian to figure out what the image says

and russia isn't an empire anymore, hasn't been since 1917, it's now a federal semi-presidencial constitutional republic.

[[RUS] Vlad01]

god, can you into logic?

so what? If people want be into Russia, let them.

[Zekamalikyd]

logic doesn't make me understand russian, i still need to know what the that graphic is about so i can understand it

then move them to russia, ffs, they have lots of space in siberia

[[RUS] Vlad01]

omfg can you see that fast-growing light-red line?
it's Russian population

Siberia, for a second, is very rich region of Russia.
And we're not in USSR times

[Zekamalikyd]

then leave crimea alone ffs

[[RUS] Vlad01]

If people want be into Russia, let them.

ffs

[Zekamalikyd]

then move them to russia

the people, not the land

[[RUS] Vlad01]

we're moved them already, by making Crimea a Russian territory


and it's really hard to send all people from Crimea to other Russian regions.
plus as I said earlier we're not in USSR times