Thoughts on the situation in Crimea.
Posted: Sat Mar 22, 2014 4:53 pm
I've been following the situation closely, would like to hear some opinions, have some discussion on the situation and possibilities.
Clearly one of the main concerns here is the escalation into military intervention from the west, though at the moment the US/EU seem unwilling to interfere with force. The occupation of Crimean military bases, coupled with the seizure of foreign business assets, namely factories and other industrial stations, seems to point not only to the re-integration of it as a Russian territory, but as a reinforced military staging post. Possibly to be used to re-integrate other ex soviet territory's. The seizing of foreign business assets obviously used to mitigate the effects of sanctions from the west.
It seems that the sanctions were anticipated and used as a further excuse to seize yet more land and assets. Perhaps indicating a much larger and more ambitious plan then to just re-take the region as a Russian territory. I find myself reminded of the German actions just before the invasions, the first places they invaded were their own countries, seizing strategic industrial and military assets in order to bolster and reinforce land in close proximity and use as staging posts. But I'm not saying that Russia may intend to invade non ex-soviet countries, the bolstering of their forces in Crimea may just be to deter any military action from the west.
Because if the west does decide on a military intervention, they simply can't get their quick enough, by the time an effective force has been mobilized and deployed, Crimea will be too heavily defended, hence the seizure of airbases, to be used in conjunction with the black sea fleet (an already formidable force).
So one possibility could be the development of a cold war style situation, a stand off, with the west unable to launch a decisive and effective military operation, and with Russia perhaps unwilling to spread it's forces and loose control of Crimea.
All speculation of course, what do you think?
P.S, One more thing, couldn't find a good place to fit it in above, that these actions could well be an act of desperation to save a failing economy, which has always been a common cause of invasions such as these.
Clearly one of the main concerns here is the escalation into military intervention from the west, though at the moment the US/EU seem unwilling to interfere with force. The occupation of Crimean military bases, coupled with the seizure of foreign business assets, namely factories and other industrial stations, seems to point not only to the re-integration of it as a Russian territory, but as a reinforced military staging post. Possibly to be used to re-integrate other ex soviet territory's. The seizing of foreign business assets obviously used to mitigate the effects of sanctions from the west.
It seems that the sanctions were anticipated and used as a further excuse to seize yet more land and assets. Perhaps indicating a much larger and more ambitious plan then to just re-take the region as a Russian territory. I find myself reminded of the German actions just before the invasions, the first places they invaded were their own countries, seizing strategic industrial and military assets in order to bolster and reinforce land in close proximity and use as staging posts. But I'm not saying that Russia may intend to invade non ex-soviet countries, the bolstering of their forces in Crimea may just be to deter any military action from the west.
Because if the west does decide on a military intervention, they simply can't get their quick enough, by the time an effective force has been mobilized and deployed, Crimea will be too heavily defended, hence the seizure of airbases, to be used in conjunction with the black sea fleet (an already formidable force).
So one possibility could be the development of a cold war style situation, a stand off, with the west unable to launch a decisive and effective military operation, and with Russia perhaps unwilling to spread it's forces and loose control of Crimea.
All speculation of course, what do you think?
P.S, One more thing, couldn't find a good place to fit it in above, that these actions could well be an act of desperation to save a failing economy, which has always been a common cause of invasions such as these.
